Maine 2018 Congress District 2 General Election

The Maine 2018 Congress District 2 General Election took place on 2018-11-06. Jared F. Golden won after two runoff rounds, and was also the Condorcet winner.

Runoff Rounds

This diagram shows the votes of each remaining candidate at each round, as well as the breakdown of votes transferred when each candidate was eliminated.

Bruce Poliquin Jared F. Golden Tiffany L. Bond William R.S. Hoar Exhausted Ballot Jared F. Golden Bruce Poliquin Exhausted BallotRound 1Round 2

Pairwise Preferences

For every pair of candidates, this table shows what fraction of voters preferred one to the other. A preference means that either a voter ranks a candidate ahead of the other, or ranks a candidate but does not list the other. Ballots which list neither candidate are not counted towards the percent counts.

Less PreferredMore PreferredBruce PoliquinJared F. GoldenTiffany L. BondWilliam R.S. HoarBruce PoliquinJared F. GoldenTiffany L. BondWilliam R.S. Hoar49.4%62.4%66.3%50.6%74.7%77.7%37.6%25.3%65.3%33.7%22.3%34.7%

First Alternate

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who ranked one candidate first ranked the other candidate second.

Second ChoiceFirst ChoiceBruce PoliquinJared F. GoldenTiffany L. BondWilliam R.S. HoarBruce PoliquinJared F. GoldenTiffany L. BondWilliam R.S. HoarExhausted Ballot6.9%11.3%14.5%67.2%6.1%40.2%13.9%39.7%9.9%29.2%34.1%26.9%12.9%17.5%38.1%31.4%

Final-round vote by First vote

For each candidate who was eliminated before the final round, this table shows which final-round candidate the eliminated candidate's first-round ballots went to.

Final Round ChoiceFirst ChoiceTiffany L. BondWilliam R.S. HoarJared F. GoldenBruce PoliquinExhausted Ballot47.5%18.8%33.7%37.3%23.7%39.0%

Honest Approval Set

Another voting system is Approval Voting, which involves indicating one or more candidates you approve of without ranking them. The candidate with the most voters who approve of them wins. It is impossible to know how voters would vote on an approval ballot based on their ranked ballot, but two reasonable assumptions we can narrow down the set of possibe approval ballots. With these possible approval ballots, we can determine which candidates would have had a chance of winning under an approval voting system.

The assumptions we make are:

  • Every voter who ranked at least one candidate would have voted for at least one candidate in an approval vote.
  • Every voter’s approval votes would be consistent with their ranked ballot, that is, they would not vote for a candidate unless they also voted for every candidate who appeared above that candidate on their ranked ballot.

The table below shows the maximum vote margin each candidate could have received (over the next best candidate) in an approval system, subject to these assumptions.

CandidateMost Favorable Scenario
Bruce PoliquinWins 188,293 to 138,935
Jared F. GoldenWins 179,501 to 137,566
Tiffany L. BondLoses 141,312 to 131,186
William R.S. HoarLoses 143,566 to 119,248

Meta

NameMaine 2018 Congress District 2 General Election
Date2018-11-06
Total Ballots296,077
Input Formatus_me
Tabulation Methodeager_irv
Normalized Ballot Dataus/me/2018/11/cd02/us_me_2018_11_cd02.normalized.csv.gz

Raw Input Data

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us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/Nov18CVRExportFINAL2.xlsx9defa6da5adc481eac2bb72a348583b6eddaf1d6
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/Nov18CVRExportFINAL3.xlsx7f3f7a539b119a14396f7df1c52a6a3128e2087d
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/RepCD2-8final.xlsxb0911053cfe6d144ec82fbeb637d6c555a31a4fb
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/UOCAVA-AUX-CVRRepCD2.xlsx593f0ee1a5f7a74082d59e097a30bcc2f9c29d2e
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/UOCAVA-FINALRepCD2.xlsx710675ddef04b546b95ba2ddf305369742e73e6d
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/UOCAVA2CVRRepCD2.xlsx1ab98cfb6bd40b9b80ba2e6cec894abd5b7ecac7
us/me/2018/11/cd02/final/AUXCVRProofedCVR95RepCD2.xlsx7c71574723e61c0eb1e13eea57c47eb24384da07
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Created by Paul Butler. The content on this page may be reproduced freely under the terms of the CC BY license.