Burlington 2009 Mayoral Election

The Burlington 2009 Mayoral Election took place on 2009-03-03. Bob Kiss won after three runoff rounds, while Andy Montroll was the Condorcet winner.

Runoff Rounds

This diagram shows the votes of each remaining candidate at each round, as well as the breakdown of votes transferred when each candidate was eliminated.

Kurt Wright Bob Kiss Andy Montroll Dan Smith Write-In James Simpson Exhausted Ballot Bob Kiss Kurt Wright Exhausted BallotRound 1Round 2Round 3

Pairwise Preferences

For every pair of candidates, this table shows what fraction of voters preferred one to the other. A preference means that either a voter ranks a candidate ahead of the other, or ranks a candidate but does not list the other. Ballots which list neither candidate are not counted towards the percent counts.

Less PreferredMore PreferredKurt WrightBob KissAndy MontrollDan SmithWrite-InJames SimpsonKurt WrightBob KissAndy MontrollDan SmithWrite-InJames Simpson48.5%44.4%51.1%97.4%80.1%51.5%46.1%52.4%98.2%86.7%55.6%53.9%60.4%98.5%91.4%48.9%47.6%39.6%98.2%88.5%2.6%1.8%1.5%1.8%4.6%19.9%13.3%8.6%11.5%95.4%

First Alternate

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who ranked one candidate first ranked the other candidate second.

Second ChoiceFirst ChoiceKurt WrightBob KissAndy MontrollDan SmithWrite-InJames SimpsonKurt WrightBob KissAndy MontrollDan SmithWrite-InJames SimpsonExhausted Ballot9.5%28.8%29.9%0.7%2.6%28.5%9.1%51.1%22.1%0.5%4.6%12.6%20.6%36.2%31.1%0.5%3.0%8.6%25.0%27.3%34.5%0.1%3.7%9.5%13.9%16.7%36.1%5.6%0.0%27.8%11.4%40.0%11.4%25.7%2.9%8.6%

Final-round vote by First vote

For each candidate who was eliminated before the final round, this table shows which final-round candidate the eliminated candidate's first-round ballots went to.

Final Round ChoiceFirst ChoiceAndy MontrollDan SmithWrite-InJames SimpsonBob KissKurt WrightExhausted Ballot52.4%30.8%16.8%46.9%35.1%18.0%41.7%13.9%44.4%57.1%25.7%17.1%

Honest Approval Set

Another voting system is Approval Voting, which involves indicating one or more candidates you approve of without ranking them. The candidate with the most voters who approve of them wins. It is impossible to know how voters would vote on an approval ballot based on their ranked ballot, but two reasonable assumptions we can narrow down the set of possibe approval ballots. With these possible approval ballots, we can determine which candidates would have had a chance of winning under an approval voting system.

The assumptions we make are:

  • Every voter who ranked at least one candidate would have voted for at least one candidate in an approval vote.
  • Every voter’s approval votes would be consistent with their ranked ballot, that is, they would not vote for a candidate unless they also voted for every candidate who appeared above that candidate on their ranked ballot.

The table below shows the maximum vote margin each candidate could have received (over the next best candidate) in an approval system, subject to these assumptions.

CandidateMost Favorable Scenario
Kurt WrightWins 6,085 to 3,480
Bob KissWins 6,180 to 3,616
Andy MontrollWins 6,701 to 3,422
Dan SmithWins 6,091 to 3,696
Write-InLoses 2,983 to 239
James SimpsonLoses 4,101 to 3,388

Meta

NameBurlington 2009 Mayoral Election
Date2009-03-03
Total Ballots8,980
Input Formatus_vt_btv
Tabulation Methodeager_irv
Normalized Ballot Dataus/vt/btv/2009/03/mayor/us_vt_btv_2009_03_mayor.normalized.csv.gz

Raw Input Data

File NameSHA-1
us/vt/btv/2009/03/2009 Mayor Reports.zip6db59ff407060f286032dfdee66e71107e96f7b2
Creative Commons License
Created by Paul Butler. The content on this page may be reproduced freely under the terms of the CC BY license.